Monday, July 9, 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=1pRsug-fDQk   This is why I don't bet.  Dude has a 13% chance of winning with 3 cards on the table.. 2 cards to come up. He calls an all-in, WTF would you do that? mathmetical sense tells you NOT to do it. 13% chance to go on, those odds aren't even worth messin' wtih.  SOmehow he gets his two cards and wins. for 28 million, you're willing ot make that bet?  There's a world series of poker player who said something like "if there was no luck in poker, I'd never lose"  well no shit sherlock.  Most pros probably wouldn't 'cause they know the percentages.  I wonder how many would be willing to take that bet, 'cause I sure as heck wouldn't

http://www.esquire.com/the-side/best-month-ever/best-game-show-moments-ever?src=rss#slide-13

Prisoner's dilemma.  Brief description below the video.  analysis "after the jump" 'cause there's a huge pit in front of you , gotta make that leap of faith bullshit.




Before watching the video, I already knew what was gonna happen 'cause no way anybody is going to be that honest about actually stealing the money. It makes the person sound like an honest dick.). So the Nick guy keeps saying "I promise I'm gonna pick the Steal ball." Gets in the other guy's head.  It's such a better tactic than saying "I promise I'm gonna take the Split ball so we both walk away with the money," 'cause then it's too easy to take Steal and take it all for yourself.  Everbody uses that tactic so it's old, doesn't work.  By going this route, it tricks the person into thinking you really are gonna take Steal, so if they go with Steal, everybody loses, but if you're bluffing (i'll get to this next), he steals everything.  the BEST move is to go with Split because either 1) he's telling the truth, you'll get all of the money (but he can't be telling the truth) or 2) he's bluffing to make you take split so that both people win the full amount, in essence acting as an immoral person to benefit you.  

I suppose he really could have taken Steal, but the small possibility of this happening in a one-time game is rather small.  The only possible way he would do that,  I think, is by double bluffing, initially saying he's gonna go Steal, then saying he's gonna go Split, and then maybe even reverting back to Steal. He's too cocksure to really go for it. that's what I was thinking during the video, anyway.  Definitely could do some really good research wtih that issue which I'm sure has been done. 

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