Re: [Madness Writers] 3/21/2012 01:09:00 PM

yeah from what i wrote a few weeks ago, Pens were 4th in the conference, 2nd in teh division.  trades and coaching were what I said helped win the cup. 

 

you have to finish first in your division to even have a chance at teh cup, and pretty much first in your conference.  plus you need at least +35 goal differential (pens in 2009 had 35, lowest I've seen since 2002 or 2001 for the cup winner).  based on those stats,

only rags, pens, boston in the east.  get rid of boston.  so rags/pens ECF

blues, vancouver and wangs in the west. get rid of wangs (3rd in conference, no depth). yeah, blues/vancouver WCF.  

pens/vanc

the thing is, whichever conference sends a team that doesnt fit the bill: not at least +35 and a division champ, automatically lose Cup. every time. 

last year, both boston and vanc were #1 in their conference, both way above +35.  still shouldnt have gone 7 games for a vancouver win, but injuries and suspensions do that.

On Wed, Mar 21, 2012 at 4:09 PM, Madness <nayrrizdaed@gmail.com> wrote:

Detroit. they are playin Conklin tonight, who had to go through waivers. case closed. Detroit. they are playin Conklin tonight, who had to go through waivers. case closed. HAHAHAHAHA, good stuff.

Hopefully this chart looks good in the email: goal differentials per year
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Nashville 17 15 0 -20 1
Canucks 51 77 50 26 -2
Chicago 14 33 62 48 4
Detroit 45 20 13 51 73
Blues 46 6 2 0 -32
Rangers 39 35 4 -8 14
Pens 54 39 20 25 31
Flyers 26 36 11 26 15
Boston 48 51 28 80 -10

For the past four years, looks like the top teams in each conference went to the Finals except in 09 when Boston was clearly ahead of the pack in O and D (Chicago made it the conference finals, lost in 5 games i think). My theory on 2009 for the Pens is that they acquired Kunitz and Guerin who greatly improved their goal differential (they were like 17-1-2 or something during the last two months) so they were probably pretty average before then and then got a super team effort to backend the season, bringing up their paltry goal differential to a measly 25.

Oh, I guess in 2010, the Flyers only had a +11. Chicago was the clear winner there so I guess it doesn't amtter.

The basic idea is that the team with the biggest goal differential will win the cup except 2009. From the teams selected, it looks like a Canucks - Pens Finals, what I rpedicted earlier today. Boston's numbers are inflated from early in the season.. Detroit and Blues aren't far behind, neuither are Rangers.

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Posted By Madness to Madness Writers at 3/21/2012 01:09:00 PM